Maybe the best way to wager on baseball is to bet on the underdog. This is the case, because even the best team in baseball will lose around 40% of the time and you can get good odds on the underdog. However, you have to change your picks between the favorite and the underdog in order to make picks that are balanced. So, how can you bet a favorite but have the odds of an underdog? The answer to this is betting the team that is the favorite but with a runline. Betting on the runline in baseball is very similar to betting on a team with a spread. The standard runline is to bet 1.5 runs. Basically when you take the 1.5 runline the team that you bet on, which is the favorite, will have to win by 2 or more runs in order for you to win your bet.
Risk Less to win more:
Even though there are risks when betting on the runline, hey it’s gambling there are risks with every type of bet, on home teams that are favored, such as having only 8 innings to score by more than 2 or more runs, betting the runline is a pretty good option. If you look at a MLB game and believe that the favorite will win the game it may be a better idea, and will definitely be more lucrative one, to bet on the runline instead of betting on the moneyline. You will be risking less money to win more money, so who would not want to take advantage of that? It is a good idea to play the favorites on the moneyline up to around -130. Anything that is higher than this moneyline should be a bet on the favorite taking the runline.
Therefore, it makes perfect sense to bet on the favored team at home taking the runline. Teams that are at home win more game by 1 run then visiting teams do. This is because the games automatically end when the home team has a lead in a game entering the 9th inning.
But be cautious betting the runline for home teams…
You have to remember that if the game is tied when the 9th inning is over, there is only a 7% chance that the home team favorite will win by more than 1 run. Conversely, a team that is the visitor that scores 1 run will usually try to continue to score in order to pad their lead. This difference makes a big pricing difference, as, all in all, home teams win 1 run games around 17% of the time and visiting teams win 1 run games around 11% of the time.
Consider the expected total:
Another important thing to take into account when pricing a runline is the total of the game. The lower the total of the game is, the more of a chance that the favorite will win by only 1 run. While a game total never guarantees that a lot of runs will be scored in a game, it is a good indication of how much offense the game will see. For example, if the total of a game is 13 it is more likely the 1.5 runline will cover then if the game had a total of 8, as it shows that the game should see a significant amount of offense.